Early Fall 2024 Real Estate Market Update - Greater Sacramento - California - National Trends

by John Campos

This is a comprehensive breakdown both in video form at the top and charts/ graphs below. In both I work to give a breakdown of the data and my opinion. This is your Sacramento Real Estate market for June and July 2024 with a look at Placer, El Dorado, and California stats as well as a national perspective on prices and interest rates.

Market Update Bullet Points:

Interest rates are dropping - 6% conventional, 5.75%FHA, 5.25% as of the writing of this article and trending downward

All home buyers are required to sign a Buyer Agreement with a Realtor before viewing any homes after August 16th 2024

Buyers will be required to now pay the buyer's agent commission - Buyers agent should be ensuring the sellers pay for this new buyer fee

Prices will increase as rates drop, but the rate drops are so new it has not yet reflected in prices…YET

Now possibly the best time to buy - See below “My Take on the Sacramento Market”

Buyers Bullet Points:

Gold Opportunity to Buy Right Now

Interest rates dropping

National Change is Buyer Real Estate Agency Effective August 16th, 2024

Interest rates have continued to drop slightly now around 6% conventiona down from 6.8 on my Mid-Summer Update as of late July! THAT'S HUGE and QUICK. Prices have not yet reflected this drop, but they will! First time home buyers using any kind of assistance should make a move right now. When there are multiple offers on most homes, anyone using down payment programs are usually the first squeezed out of the market.

Buyer Real Estate Agency - The National Association of Realtors Legal Requirements between Buyers and Buyers Agent have changed - As of August 16th, 2024 there was a change nationally in the way buyers agents and their Realtors interact, before any home can be shown a buyer must sign an engagement agreement with a Realtor, this agreement can be day specific, home specific, or it can run for as long and buyer and Realtor Agree.

This agreement formally called the Buyer Representation and Broker Compensation Agreement does two things:

It establishes a timeframe for the Realtor / Buyer relationship
It establishes a maximum compensation the buyer's Realtor can receive.

We will discuss these terms before viewing any homes. I I am making videos to go line-by-line discussing this brand new form.

Your Realtor John - I come from the old school, I want to EARN your business, and if our relationship isn't working out and you elect to work with someone else, I will cancel this agreement in writing, shake your hand, and wish you well regardless of what we agreed to because I am so confident you will be satisfied with my level of service, so much so, I put “this agreement can be canceled at any time” in writing on all my agreements.

Sellers:

It’s still a sellers market, and it may become a strong sellers market depending on interest rates

Selling prices have started their yearly trend downward.This is the statistical point where prices begin a slow decline into winter. Inventory has peaked going into late summer and will gradually decrease through winter. Interest rates dropping are expected to make this winter more competitive than a usual slow winter. Anecdotally, I’ve had more buyer inquiries since September 1st onward than nearly the whole of 2024.

Greater Area*: # of Homes on Market relative to demand Green Avg Sale Price Vs Avg Sold

Interest Rates

Historical interest rates provided here are only provided as a national average, and can vary from person to person, and lender to lender.

By my calculation

7.42% - Historical Yearly Median Interest Rate from 1971 - 2023

In RED below, you will see rates trend toward 6% on average, in our last report we were only slightly below 6.8% and trending downward. This is great for buyers and sellers alike, BUT will increase competition for buyers and favors sellers as the trend continues.

Detailed Sacramento Market as of the last published report:

Sacramento County (including Cities of West Sacramento):

Median Sold Price Month / Month- August vs July down 0%

Median Sold Price Year / Year - Is up 3.06%

Housing Inventory - Inventory increased starting in May - 1.8 Months of Inventory

Monthly Median Price Sold - August was $559,000

Current Median Price Approx. - As of 9/8/24 $560,000

My Take on the Sacramento Market:

After a bust market for the better part of 2022 into 2023, it's been a slow recovery to find stability, and we have now reached stability over the course of summer in 2024. With interest rates dropping, and if they stay low most importantly, we may see a boom year in 2025 for prices. For the record, I don’t want booms or busts, my life and stress load is so much more bearable in moderate growth and decline markets. All price and payment sensitive buyers should capitalize on the market right now. As of the time of writing this, the market is at a lull, a nice little plateau that is giving buyers the best opportunity they’ve had in years: plenty to pick from, reasonable competition, reasonable interest rates, and a real possibility of interest rate refinancing in the near future for a lower payment.

California Market:

Redfin data shows Year over year Growth of:

California - 3.3%

Sacramento County Only (not including City of West Sac) - 3.8%

Placer County - (-0.43)%

El Dorado County - 2.8%

Note: County Data is vast with numerous rural areas. If you want specific data on your Zip Code please let me know and we can discuss your specific needs.

Nationwide:

We are seeing year over year growth across all regions year over year at 3.1%.

All regions across the US decreased marginally between 2% and 3.9% from July to August, notably the midwest held stead with 0% change. This is cyclical and expected going into fall.