Mid-Summer - Real Estate Market Update 2024 - Greater Sacramento - California - National Trends

by John Campos

This is a comprehensive breakdown both in video form at the top and charts/ graphs below. In both I work to give a breakdown of the data and my opinion on some occasions. This is your Sacramento Real Estate market for June and July 2024 with a look at Placer, El Dorado, and California stats as well as a national perspective on prices and interest rates.

Quick Market Update:

The market has been faster moving and competitive these last 2 months with decent homes earning multiple offers compared to our May report. The market isn’t scorching hot, but there are still groups of buyers at nearly every open house. Also, I’m still showing various families multiple homes and I have multiple listings upcoming. I find unique and well-priced homes are selling quickly, so-so houses or people listing for the highest price on mediocre houses are sitting. Average days on the market for a home is 26 days, this has remained steady. Most sellers are selling because of big life changes or to use the equity to keep the payment on their next house low. Sac county median price increased from $557k at the end of May to $562k as of July 21.

Sellers:

Selling prices in 2024 are still at a yearly peak, so acting quickly will help you capture the highest net profits before they begin to decrease going into fall/winter. This is the statistical point where prices begin a slow decline into winter. The Inventory (# of homes available) is lower than it is on an average year, but has grown quickly from May through July.

Buyers:

There is a new down payment assistance program that gives $15,000 toward buyers down payment for first time home buyers* and the rate only increases by 1/8th of a percent, which is NOTHING compared to past programs. Compared to my last update, expect prices overall to begin to decrease. This is property specific however! Excellent properties priced well nearly always have multiple offers over asking. Interest rates have continued to drop slightly now around 6.8% down from this year's high of 7.5%. Though not moving much from this range in the last few weeks. If they change significantly in either direction, this will skew the market.

*First Time Home buyer for this program is someone who has not purchased a home in 3 years. They CAN own a home. They may have purchased homes in the past.

Interest rates provided here are only provided as a national average, and can vary from person to person, and lender to lender.

By my calculation

7.42% - Historical Median Interest Rate from 1971 - 2023

In RED below, you will see rates continue trending downward below 7%, in our last report we were only slightly starting to trend at and below 7%. This is great for buyers and sellers alike, BUT will increase competition if the trend continues.

Detailed Sacramento Market as of the last published report:

Sacramento County (including Cities of West Sacramento):

Median Sold Price Month / Month- July vs May down 1.4%

Median Sold Price Year / Year - Is up 5.08%

Housing Inventory - Inventory is increasing starting in May

Monthly Median Price Sold - June was $559,000

Current Median Price Approx. - As of 7/21/24 $562,000

My Take on the Sacramento Market: Median price appears to have plateaued for the year, lower than the all-time high price of $575,000 set in May of 2022. 2022 was also notably before interest rates continued to drastically increase. However, if rates continue to drop, there’s a chance the median price can continue to rise though at this point it will likely be 2025. A 5% growth in 2025 like we saw this year would have the median price hit $588,000 next summer. The market is mixed, some homes are priced well and/or a “dream home” that everyone wants, those seem to sell very quickly or for above the comparables. Average homes need to be priced right to sell quicker than the 40 day average days on market. Expect homes to sit on the market longer this winter unless interest rates drop to below 6.5%.

California Market:

Redfin data shows Year over year Growth of:

California - 7.7%

Sacramento County Only (not including City of West Sac) - 5.8%

Placer County - (-0.72)%

El Dorado County - 2.6%

Note: County Data is vast with numerous rural areas. If you want specific data on your Zip Code please let me know and we can discuss your specific needs.

Nationwide:

We are seeing growth across all regions year over year nationwide, albeit, slower than West region up at 3.5%. This is still steady growth nationally and is evidence of a healthy market. I would expect to see a decrease through winter nationwide, which is cyclical and normal.